Wednesday 16 December 2020, 17:54
2020 will go down in history as the year that humanity was faced with a serious threat that changed habits and lifestyles affecting all forms of human activity.
Governments have found themselves in a new management reality that on the one hand had to safeguard the security of their citizens and on the other hand maintain a minimal part of the economic activity that would serve basic needs. At the end of this year, hopes were revived with the release of the first vaccines, while an unprecedented mobilization of states and organizations is underway to minimize the time for the population to acquire immunity. Ignorance of the pandemic was the reason the shares sold out in March, the announcement of the vaccine on November 9 is the reason why they are at record highs in America and one of the strongest rising rally in the domestic market.
Next year will be the benchmark for implementing recovery policies through economic support packages in Europe and America. Budget support programs are expected to increase the liquidity of the economy and employment in the labor market in the coming years, gradually restoring economies to normal levels.
The winners of a difficult year
There are winning industries that through these programs will see inputs and growth of their work such as construction, Renewable Energy, digital application companies and accessories sectors of the economy that mediate (banks) or are tangent (building materials) in these due to developments. For Greece, there is a unique opportunity to implement projects and economic actions of added value which in combination with the recovery of tourist demand will give a strong impetus to GDP growth. Many will be judged by the effectiveness of the vaccines, however the plan (Pissaridis Report) that has been designed now has its basic parameters defined.
The awakening of the ATHEX
The stock market after a long time seems to be waking up. In addition to the growing interest in codes and liquidity, there are now moves that indicate interest from strategic investors of high specific weight. The sale of HEDNO, the transactions of CVC, the stronger presence of Dutch funds in the construction industry, the sale of DEPA, the upcoming capital increases of Aegean and Ellactor are part of the immediate “coming” of 2021. Important private (Greek, Kastelli, FSRU) and Public (Metro 4, Road 65) projects are nearing the beginning of which will change the landscape of infrastructure and construction activity. During this year, Greek banks have scheduled transactions of securitization of non-performing exhibitions of 24 billion euros, while next summer the endurance tests will take place. Whether capital increases will be needed will not only be a function of the climate and the ease of access to capital markets but also of the will of the administrations for a faster return to purely organic normalcy. Finally, the country’s debt upgrades will come much faster as the pandemic may have led to a significant contraction in GDP, however, it left the security liquidity reserve intact while the 10-year interest rate continues to record historically low prices.
The protagonists of 2021
All of the above put many listed companies in the spotlight for next year. PPC, OPAP, Titan, Quest, GEKTERNA stand out, which have reasons to expect a better year than this year, having at the same time shown their endurance in an extremely difficult situation. Finally, the National Bank is very close to returning to normal levels of bad debts from the banking sector.
The technical image
Technically, the General Index with the rise of December has exceeded 61.8% of the correction from the lows of March. exceeding 1,000 units. The 1,000 units, however, are not a technical limit, they are just a round number that has more psychological significance. Therefore the challenges of the basic resistors are at 950 points where the inversion formation that is in progress is completed. On a monthly basis, the General Index seems to have an even greater outlook looking close to the highs of 2014, ie 1,380 points, however the depth of this outlook is longer-term and more dependent on the banking sector. Entering next year, the General Index maintains its long-term weekly buying signals with the value of transactions supporting the effort to regain lost ground in early 2020.
In conclusion, the rise that began in November was a catalyst for the long-term technical picture and the combination of the increase in average daily volumes now gives a clear lead to buyers in the big picture.
Abroad, next year’s agenda remains extremely interesting. The new government (20/1) in the US is estimated to want to make its mark quickly with what this entails for the faster promotion of fiscal expansion projects. Brexit precedes the change of baton in the USA, the agreement for the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. with ancillary consequences unless coordinated in Ireland and Scotland. The German federal elections will be held next autumn with a deadline of October 24. 2021 is before a unique year even begins: it will be the first time in a single year that the Summer Olympics will be held.