Coronavirus: The analysis for Tuesday’s cases (15/12/2020)

Enikos.gr daily, after the announcements of EODY for the coronavirus presents the quantitative analysis of the epidemiological data, in collaboration with the team of Demosthenes Sarigiannis, director of the Laboratory of Environmental Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and director of the Research Center for Research the Human Health of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation of AUTh.

The following is the analysis of Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis and Dr. Spyrou Karakitsiou for the evolution of the pandemic in our country:

According to EODY data, the downward trend continues on Tuesday with 1240 new cases, confirming the slow course of de-escalation of the pandemic in the country with the results in line with the forecasts of the computer platform CORE. The number of tests performed (32872) was the highest ever performed, and in combination with the number of cases, the positivity index today stood at 3.8%, ie at the levels it was 7 weeks ago.

Unfortunate news is the large number of deaths (98), after 2 days with values ​​below 80. The generally high number of deaths recorded even this week combined with the observed decrease in confirmed cases compared to the previous week may to be interpreted by the fact that the lockdown was implemented more consistently after November 17-18, about 10 days after its announcement.

As for the patients in critical condition (intubated in ICU), on Tuesday the number decreased slightly (550 from 558 the day before yesterday). The evolution curve of the number of patients requiring intubation appears to be slowly following the path shown by the CORE computing platform, as shown in Figure 1, while an estimate of the course of deaths is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1. Number of cases in critical condition (ICU) according to the data of EODY and the forecasts of the computer platform CORE.

Figure 2. Number of deaths (rolling average of 7 days) according to the data of EODY and the forecasts of the computer platform CORE.

In both cases it seems that we are at the beginning of the de-escalation as we had predicted. If the declining course of cases continues, it is quite safe to expect that this de-escalation will take place in terms of the number of patients who are intubated in ICU and the deaths from COVID-19.

The course of the average weekly case value as recorded by EODY and their expected course until the end of the year, according to the current situation and the decision to extend the lockdown until January 7, as specified by the computer platform CORE for the Greek territory, are depicted in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Greece

In the individual areas with high health risk, the downward trends in the number of new cases are confirmed in Thessaloniki with 232 cases on Tuesday (Figure 5) but then with the observations of the previous days at a much slower rate in Attica with 270 cases. In Attica, the epidemiological curve has a very small slope, although there is a downward trend overall (Figure 4), indicating the incorrect application of lockdown by a portion of the population in specific areas of the Basin, such as West Attica. Given the size of the population of Attica and the existing constraints, we propose to examine in more detail the data per municipality, and where there is a strong epidemiological burden (eg West Attica) to intensify compliance controls. The same is proposed to be done in Thessaloniki, although it seems to be declining overall. However, the extension of the lockdown until January 7, removes the possibility of an outbreak during the holidays.

Figure 4. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Attica

Figure 5. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Thessaloniki

Regarding Thessaly, only Magnesia shows a slight downward trend compared to Monday, with 19 cases on Tuesday (Figure 7). Karditsa with 14 cases (Figure 8) shows stabilizing trends (considering the largest number of tests conducted nationwide), while on the contrary the situation in Larissa with 78 cases (Figure 6), and in Trikala with 19 cases (Figure 9) is increasing, further drawing our attention to these two cities, so that the increase projected from next weekend does not take place.

Figure 6. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Larissa

Figure 7. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Magnesia

Figure 8. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Karditsa

Figure 9. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Trikala

In the areas of concern in central Greece, the changes were asymmetric. In Etoloakarnania with 4 cases on Tuesday the situation is described as stabilized in a moderate number of cases and with a slow downward course (Figure 11). In Achaia, there is a third upward trend, with 22 cases (Figure 10), while in Arcadia with 0 cases for the second consecutive day, the course of the dispersion compared to the previous days seems to be stabilizing (Figure 12), although the overall tendency has the potential to develop negatively (especially in Achaia), so we draw our attention to areas that until a few days ago had a very good epidemiological picture.

Figure 10. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Achaia

Figure 11. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Etoloakarnania

Figure 12. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Arcadia

In Evia, with 8 cases on Tuesday, we observe an increase, which if it continues in the coming days will be particularly worrying (Figure 13).

Figure 13. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Evia

Concern continues due to the unstable course in the regions of Northern Greece, and more specifically in Imathia with 49 cases on Tuesday (Figure 14), in Pella with 19 cases (Figure 15), in Florina with 10 cases (Figure 17), and especially in Pieria with 44 cases (Figure 21) and in Serres with 30 cases (Figure 23). Strongly up compared to Monday (27 cases) is the course of the dispersion in Kozani with 69 cases on Tuesday (Figure 16), which does not seem to have entered a process of de-escalation. In all these cities, the low rate of de-escalation is a problem, which can be attributed to the fact that the measures are poorly implemented by some small groups of the population, but due to the small size of these areas, their effect is decisive in halting the decline. On the contrary, Drama with 14 cases (Figure 18), Grevena with 8 cases (Figure 22), and Kastoria with 4 cases (Figure 24) show a generally declining course of the dispersion but with a slight slope.

Figure 14. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Imathia

Figure 15. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Pella

Figure 16. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Kozani

Figure 17. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Florina

Figure 18. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Drama

Figure 19. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Kilkis

Figure 20. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Kavala

Figure 21. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Pieria

Figure 22. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Grevena

Figure 23. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Serres

Figure 24. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Kastoria

As far as Thrace is concerned, 18 cases have been detected in Rodopi (Figure 25) and there are signs of dispersal control (for which we are wary of confirmed cases in the coming days), in Evros 41 (Figure 26), and the slight upward trend, while in Xanthi 54 cases were detected on Tuesday (Figure 27), a number much higher compared to yesterday’s data (8 cases). These areas need special attention to avoid a possible upward trend of the dispersion from December 20 onwards.

Figure 25. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Rodopi

Figure 26. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Evros

Figure 27. Course of the daily number of cases (7 days rolling average) in Xanthi

In Lesvos, with 19 cases (Figure 28) the unstable course continues to inspire concern, while in Corfu with 0 cases (Figure 29) and to a lesser extent in Heraklion with 7 cases (Figure 30) and in Chania with 6 cases (Figure 31), the evolution of the pandemic seems to have reached a steady decline.

Figure 28. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Lesvos

Figure 29. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Corfu

Figure 30. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Heraklion

Figure 31. Course of the daily number of cases (rolling average of 7 days) in Chania

Conclusions:

The overall course of cases, but also the beginning of de-escalation observed in recent days in the number of patients in critical condition (intubated in ICU), after Tuesday’s results, is consistent with the simulations of the CORE model for next month. Despite the implementation of horizontal measures to stop the pandemic, its course varies from region to region, while areas remain where the situation does not show steady signs of decline. The above remarks tend to conclude that the management of health risk should be considered at a local level since in the country as a whole we seem to have overcome the peak of the specific epidemic wave of November.

Nationwide, the rolling weekly average of the positivity index continues its downward trend and is now at 4.6% (the daily value is on Tuesday 3.8%) while the rolling weekly average of the real reproduction number Rt (ie the number of individuals that a vector can infect) is 0.94 (values ​​of Rt below the unit indicate a clear reduction in the spread of the virus in the community). However, current data and their comparison with the projections of the CORE computing platform show that opening the economy and schools before January 7 would be premature in terms of health risk management.

Source